Russia and Ukraine are two of the 20 largest importers of Vietnamese tuna. How does the Russia-Ukraine conflict affect Vietnam’s tuna exports?
According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine is having a comprehensive and profound impact on the world tuna market, affecting production and export activities. countries, including Vietnam.
According to statistics of Vietnam Customs, by the end of 2021, Russia and Ukraine are two of the 20 largest importers of Vietnamese tuna by value. Both countries are importing a lot of frozen tuna from Vietnam.
According to the analysis of Ms. Nguyen Ha, Tuna market expert of VASEP, for the Russian market, the 13th largest tuna import market of Vietnam, the value of Vietnam’s tuna exports to this market in In the past 10 years, it has increased from 364 thousand USD in 2012 to more than 14 million USD in 2021, an increase of more than 39 times.
The value of tuna exports to Russia in 2021 increases gradually:
Although in the past 5 years, the export value of tuna to this market has not been stable, but it is on an uptrend and recovering well after the pandemic. The value of tuna exports to Russia in 2021 accounts for 2% of the total value of tuna exports of foreign fish, up 58% compared to 2020, and higher than in 2019, the time before the outbreak of the Covid pandemic. -19. And in January 2022 alone, tuna exports to this market increased by 427% over the same period.
In Ukraine, the 19th largest tuna import market of Vietnam, the export value of tuna has increased 58 times in 10 years, from USD 115 thousand in 2012 to USD 6.8 million in 2021. And In the past 5 years, the export value of tuna has increased continuously. Particularly in 2021, the export value increased by 106% compared to 2020, and tripled compared to 2019, accounting for 1% of the total tuna export value of foreign fish.
According to businesses, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, some orders had to be returned, and tuna export transactions to both countries had to be halted due to risks in banking transactions. row. Supply chains for production and import and export are broken. Businesses are having to monitor the situation to handle inventory or find ways to export to other markets.
Besides, Russia and Ukraine are the most important sunflower oil suppliers to the global market, including Vietnam, so if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, this will affect directly to the tuna industry. Prices for most vegetable oils are now up to an all-time high in January 2022, while canned tuna processors are facing unprecedented prices for sunflower oil. That the price of sunflower oil is pushed up will push up the production cost of canned/bag tuna.
The oil market has been under pressure from the global pandemic and the Omicron variant. Prices have also started to rise since tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated. Rising fuel costs are expected to push up raw tuna prices due to rising fishing costs. Besides, sea freight rates, which are already high, are expected to continue to rise higher. And now many major shipping lines have announced not to transport to and from Russia, increasing shipping costs …
Faced with this situation, although the two markets do not account for a large proportion of Vietnam’s total tuna exports, but before the above impacts, it is expected that Vietnam’s tuna exports in the coming months will decrease significantly.
In January 2022, Vietnam’s tuna exports reached nearly $88 million, up 108% over the same period in 2021. In which, exports to major markets increased over the same period.
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